Why Forecasting H-1B Activity Matters for Candidates

Understanding current sponsorship data is valuable. Understanding where the market is heading is more valuable still. For international students planning their job search months in advance, for OPT holders timing their H-1B lottery registration, and for professionals considering a career move, the trajectory of sponsorship activity and compensation matters as much as the historical record.

VisaViz's FY2026 forecast is built from two inputs: Q1 to Q3 2026 actual certified LCA filing data, and historical quarterly seasonality patterns derived from six years of filing records. The wage projection is built from the observed median wage trajectory between 2020 and 2026.

FY2026 LCA Filing Volume Forecast

Source: VisaViz FY2026 forecast using actual certified filings through Q3 and historical quarterly seasonality.

Q1 to Q3 figures are certified DOL LCA data. Q4 is projected using historical quarterly seasonality. Actual rows are marked in the table.

Blue row = full year estimate.

The full year 2026 projection of 506,143 filings, if realised, would represent a decline from the peak years of 2021 to 2023 but remains substantially above the 2020 baseline. Q3 accounts for the largest share of projected FY2026 filing activity at 37.3% of the full year, driven by the concentration of H-1B petition filings in the April to June window that precede October 1 employment start dates.

Certified filings through Q3 2026 total 400,226. Applying historical Q4 seasonality produces a full-year projection of approximately 506,143 filings.

Q3 is expected to be the most active quarter at an estimated 217,056 filings.

Historical Quarterly Filing Patterns: The Seasonality Behind the Forecast

The FY2026 projection is grounded in a consistent seasonal pattern that has held across the full six-year dataset. Understanding this pattern helps candidates and employers anticipate when filing activity peaks and how to time their own processes accordingly.

Q1 (January to March): 17.4% of projected FY2026 filings

Q1 is consistently the quietest quarter for LCA filings. The H-1B lottery registration window opens in March, and many employers are still finalising hiring decisions for the upcoming cycle. Filing activity builds through the quarter but does not peak until later in the year.

Q2 (April to June): 24.2% of projected FY2026 filings

Q2 sees a significant increase in activity as the H-1B petition filing window opens in April for lottery-selected candidates. LCA filings must precede H-1B petitions, so April and May typically see a concentrated burst of filing activity as employers move quickly to file for selected workers before the October 1 employment start date.

Q3 (July to September): 37.3% of projected FY2026 filings

Q3 is the most active quarter by a significant margin, accounting for more than a third of all annual filings. This reflects continued petition processing, amendments, employer changes, and continuations that are not tied to the lottery calendar but cluster in the summer months. For candidates tracking market activity, Q3 data provides the strongest signal of annual sponsorship trends.

Q4 (October to December): 21.1% of projected FY2026 filings

Q4 activity moderates after the Q3 peak. October 1 H-1B employment start dates mean that many new hire filings have already been processed. Q4 activity primarily reflects continuations, amendments, and cap-exempt filings that operate outside the standard lottery calendar.

H-1B Wage Forecast: Where Sponsored Compensation Is Heading

The median sponsored wage has risen consistently from $96,595 in 2020 to $126,300 in 2026, with a projected trajectory toward $124,942 for the full year 2026 once all quarters are included. The partial year 2026 figure of $126,300 reflects the higher-wage filings that tend to concentrate in Q1 and early Q2.

Source: VisaViz analysis of DOL LCA wage medians, FY2020-FY2026. The full-year FY2026 value is a forecast.

What the Wage Trajectory Signals for 2026 and Beyond

The acceleration in 2025 and 2026 is significant

After three years of relatively modest wage growth (2022 to 2024, averaging around $3,000 per year), the pace picked up sharply in 2025 with a $6,552 increase and has accelerated further into 2026. This is consistent with the premium being paid for roles in artificial intelligence and machine learning, where demand has grown substantially faster than supply.

The full year 2026 forecast of $124,942 is conservative relative to the partial year figure

The partial year 2026 median of $126,300 is pulled upward by the wage profile of Q1 filings, which tend to include more senior and specialist roles. The full year forecast of $124,942 accounts for the lower-wage filings that typically appear in Q3 and Q4, producing a more representative annual median.

Candidates should use $124,942 as the benchmark for 2026 sponsored compensation rather than the partial year figure.

The six-year growth trend supports a forward projection above $130,000 by 2027

At the average annual growth rate observed between 2020 and 2026, the median sponsored wage would cross $130,000 on a full year basis in 2027. If the acceleration seen in 2025 and 2026 continues, the crossing point could arrive earlier. This matters for candidates negotiating multi-year sponsored employment contracts and for those benchmarking current offers against where the market is likely to be by the time they reach an H-1B renewal or transfer decision.

What the 2026 Forecast Means for International Candidates

Q3 2026 will be the most active period for filing activity

If you are monitoring the market for new sponsorship opportunities, Q3 is when employer activity peaks. The concentration of petition filings and employer change filings in July to September means that more positions are being actively processed during this period than at any other point in the year.

The 506,000 full year projection suggests a stable market, not a contracting one

A projected 506,143 filings for the full year 2026 is lower than the peaks seen in 2021 to 2023 but represents a fundamentally active sponsorship market. Candidates should not interpret post-peak moderation as evidence that sponsorship is becoming harder to obtain. The underlying employer base of 158,861 active sponsors has remained broad.

Wage growth favours candidates who negotiate actively in 2026

With median sponsored wages up 30.8% since 2020 and continuing to grow, candidates entering the sponsored workforce in 2026 are doing so at historically high compensation levels. The upward trajectory also supports a case for negotiating at or above the current year median rather than accepting the employer's first offer.

Plan your OPT to H-1B transition around the Q2 filing peak

For OPT holders whose employers are preparing H-1B petitions, the Q2 filing concentration in April and May is the critical window. Ensuring your LCA is filed and approved before the petition window opens in April means your employer is positioned to file as early as possible, maximising the time available for standard processing before October 1.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How many H-1B filings are expected in 2026?

Based on 400,226 actual certified filings through Q3 2026 and historical Q4 seasonality, VisaViz projects approximately 506,143 total LCA filings for FY2026. Q3 is the largest quarter at 217,056 filings, consistent with the pattern observed across every year in the dataset.

Q: What is the projected median H-1B wage for 2026?

The full year 2026 median sponsored wage is forecast at $124,942, based on historical quarterly wage distribution patterns applied to the partial-year median of $126,300. The partial-year figure is higher because the filing mix can skew toward senior and specialist roles with above-average compensation.

Q: Is H-1B sponsorship increasing or decreasing in 2026?

The 2026 projection of approximately 506,000 filings represents a moderation from the 2021 to 2023 peaks but remains well above the 2020 baseline. The market is stable rather than contracting. Wage growth is accelerating, which signals continued employer demand for sponsored talent even as raw filing volumes normalise.

Q: Why does Q3 have the most H-1B filings?

Q3 covers July to September, which falls immediately after the H-1B petition filing window that opens in April. By Q3, the bulk of new hire petitions have been filed and are being processed, while employer changes, amendments, and continuations also peak during this period. The combination produces the largest quarterly filing volume of the year.

Q: How accurate are VisaViz's quarterly forecasts?

The forecast methodology uses actual filings through Q3 as its anchor and applies historical Q4 seasonality. The projected FY2026 mix is Q1: 17.4%, Q2: 24.2%, Q3: 37.3%, and Q4: 21.1%. These shares have remained relatively consistent year over year, making them a reliable basis for projection. The forecast does not account for major policy changes, economic shocks, or significant shifts in employer hiring intent that could alter the seasonal pattern.